China May Exports Trail Estimates as Imports Unexpectedly Drop

China's exports rose 1 percent in May from a year earlier while imports unexpectedly dropped 0.3 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $20.43 billion, the General Administration of Customs said today in Beijing.

The growth in overseas shipments compares with the median estimate for a 7.4 percent gain in a Bloomberg News survey of 38 analysts and a 14.7 percent increase the previous month. Forecasts ranged from a 3 percent drop to a 17.1 percent increase.

The decline in imports compares with the median estimate for a 6.6 percent gain and a 16.8 percent jump in April. Projections ranged from a drop of 2.8 percent to an advance of 16 percent.

The trade surplus compares with the median forecast for an excess of $20 billion and an $18.16 billion surplus in April. Estimates ranged from a surplus of $13 billion to $33.1 billion.

China's foreign-exchange regulator last month started a crackdown on fake export invoices after surging shipments to Hong Kong prompted speculation that companies were disguising capital inflows as trade.

January-April export growth was overstated by 4 to 13 percentage points, economists estimated in a survey last month. Shipments abroad probably rose 8.5 percent in the first four months of 2013 from a year earlier, based on the median estimate of 15 economists, less than half the official 17.4 percent number. Imports may have gained 8.25 percent, according to 14 analysts' median estimate, compared with the government's 10.6 percent figure.

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