Monday, December 16, 2013

Mizuho Bank, Aeon Vietnam tie up for one-stop payment services- Nikkei Asian Review

Mizuho Bank, Aeon Vietnam tie up for one-stop payment services

HANOI -- Mizuho Bank will establish a partnership with Aeon Vietnam, a subsidiary of Japanese supermarket operator Aeon, to provide comprehensive cash management and payment transaction services for the retailer.

     The partnership will be the first attempt to offer such services in Vietnam, where management of sales data has lagged, and it is expected to help modernize the country's retail sector.

     Mizuho Bank and its existing Vietnamese business partner, Vietcombank, will form a comprehensive alliance with Aeon Vietnam on Monday. The two banks will handle all cash management and payment transaction operations for supermarkets directly operated by Aeon Vietnam and for the 120 or so stores in Aeon Vietnam's first Aeon Mall, which will open in January 2014, in Ho Chi Minh City.

     Sales data will be managed comprehensively through point-of-sale systems to be installed in each store and which are capable of supporting credit card transactions. The banks will also offer other financial services, including direct deposit of employee salaries.

     The partnership will also issue an Aeon-Vietcombank debit card. To promote sales and enhance customer loyalty, the card will offer such perks as points based on purchase amounts and coupons.



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Saturday, December 7, 2013

South Africa mourns Mandela

South Africa Mourns Mandela

By Tosin Sulaiman and Peroshni Govender JOHANNESBURG - South Africans united in mourning for Nelson Mandela on Friday, but while some celebrated his remarkable life with dance and song, others fretted that the anti-apartheid hero's death would leave the nation vulnerable again to racial and social tensions. President Jacob Zuma said Mandela would be buried on Dec. 15 at his ancestral home in the Eastern Cape. South Africans heard from Zuma late on Thursday that their first black president, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, had died peacefully at his Johannesburg home in the company of his family after a long illness. On Friday, the country's 52 million people absorbed the news that the statesman, a global symbol of reconciliation and peaceful co-existence, had departed forever. Zuma also announced Mandela would be honoured at a Dec. 10 memorial service at Johannesburg's Soccer City stadium, the site of the 2010 World Cup final. "We will spend the week mourning his passing. We will also spend it celebrating a life well lived," Zuma said. Mandela would be laid to rest at his ancestral village of Qunu, 700 km (450 miles) south of Johannesburg, in a plot where three of his children and other close family members are buried. Despite reassurances from public figures that Mandela's death at 95, while sorrowful, would not halt South Africa's advance from its apartheid past, there were those who expressed unease about the absence of a man famed as a peacemaker. "It's not going to be good, hey! I think it's going to become a more racist country. People will turn on each other and chase foreigners away," said Sharon Qubeka, 28, a secretary from Tembisa township. "Mandela was the only one who kept things together." Flags flew at half mast across the country, and trade was halted for five minutes on the Johannesburg stock exchange. But the mood was not all sombre. Hundreds filled the streets around Mandela's home in the upmarket Johannesburg suburb of Houghton, many singing songs of tribute and dancing. The crowd included toddlers carrying flowers, domestic workers still in uniform and businessmen in suits. Another veteran anti-apartheid campaigner, former Anglican Archbishop of Cape Town Desmond Tutu, said that like all South Africans he was "devastated" by Mandela's death. "Let us give him the gift of a South Africa united, one," Tutu said, holding a mass in Cape Town's St George's Cathedral. Tributes continued to pour in for Mandela, who had been suffering for nearly a year from a recurring lung illness dating back to the 27 years he spent in apartheid jails, including the Robben Island penal colony. U.S. President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron were among those who praised him. The White House said Obama would travel to South Africa next week to participate in memorial events. The flags of the 193 United Nations member states along First Avenue in Manhattan, New York were lowered at 10 a.m. EST (1500 GMT) in honour of Mandela. The U.N. General Assembly observed a minute of silence. The loss was also keenly felt across the African continent. "We are in trouble now, Africa. No one will fit Mandela's shoes," said Kenyan teacher Catherine Ochieng, 32. Former Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda, an old ally of Mandela's in the struggle against apartheid, hailed him as "a great freedom fighter". POLITICIANS NOW "NOTHING LIKE MANDELA" For South Africa, the death of its most loved leader comes at a time when the nation, which basked in global goodwill after apartheid ended, has been experiencing labour unrest, growing protests against poor services, poverty, crime and unemployment and corruption scandals tainting Zuma's rule. Many saw today's South Africa - the continent's biggest economy but also one of the world's most unequal - as still distant from the "Rainbow Nation" ideal of social peace and shared prosperity that Mandela had proclaimed on his triumphant release from prison in 1990. "I feel like I lost my father, someone who would look out for me," said Joseph Nkosi, 36, a security guard. Referring to Mandela by his clan name, he added: "Now without Madiba I feel like I don't have a chance. The rich will get richer and simply forget about us. The poor don't matter to them. Look at our politicians, they are nothing like Madiba." The crowd around Mandela's home in Houghton preferred to celebrate his achievement in bringing South Africans together. For 16-year-old Michael Lowry, who has no memory of the apartheid system that ended in 1994, Mandela's legacy means he can have non-white friends. "I hear stories that my parents tell me and I'm just shocked that such a country could exist. I couldn't imagine just going to school with just white friends," Lowry said. Tutu tried to calm fears that the absence of the man who steered South Africa to democracy might revive some of the ghosts of apartheid. "To suggest that South Africa might go up in flames – as some have predicted – is to discredit South Africans and Madiba's legacy," Tutu said on Thursday. "The sun will rise tomorrow, and the next day and the next ... It may not appear as bright as yesterday, but life will carry on." MAY HURT ANC IN LONG TERM Zuma and his ruling African National Congress face presidential and legislative elections next year which are expected to reveal discontent among voters about poverty and unemployment 20 years after the end of apartheid. But the former liberation movement is expected to maintain its dominance in South African politics. Mark Rosenberg, Senior Africa Analyst at the Eurasia Group, said that while Mandela's death might give the ANC a sympathy-driven boost for the next elections, it would hurt the party in the long term. He saw Mandela's absence "sapping the party's historical legitimacy and encouraging rejection by voters who believe the ANC has failed to deliver on its economic promises and become mired in corruption". Mandela rose from rural obscurity to challenge white minority rule - a struggle that gave the 20th century one of its most respected and loved figures. He was among the first to advocate armed resistance to apartheid in 1960, but was quick to preach reconciliation and forgiveness when the white minority began easing its grip on power 30 years later. He was elected president in all-race elections in 1994 after helping to steer the divided country towards reconciliation and away from civil war. Mandela was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1993, an honour he shared with F.W. de Klerk, the white Afrikaner president who released him in 1990. In 1999, Mandela handed over power to younger leaders better equipped to manage a modern economy, a rare voluntary departure from power cited as an example to African leaders. This made him an exception on a continent with a bloody history of long-serving autocrats and violent coups. (Additional reporting by Ed Cropley, Dave Dolan, Tiisetso Motsoeneng, Xola Potelwa and Stella Mapenzauswa in Johannesburg, Wendell Roelf in Cape Town, Lou Charbonneau and Michelle Nichols in New York, Brian Moonga in Lusaka.; Writing by Pascal Fletcher; Editing by Matthew Tostevin, David Stamp and Giles Elgood) 


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Sunday, November 17, 2013

The roadmap to China’s evolving automotive market | ASIA TODAY News & Events



The roadmap to China's evolving automotive market | ASIA TODAY News & Events

The second edition of NextGen Auto International China Summit will take place from 9 – 10 December at the Kerry Hotel in Shanghai's Pudong district. Co-organised by Messe Frankfurt (Shanghai) Co Ltd and the International Cooperation Centre of National Development and Reform Commission, the 2013 conference will focus on sustainable and globally-competitive solutions for China's automotive industry.

Attendees can expect to receive a wealth of knowledge on emerging global trends in energy-efficiency and smart technology. Through a series of business models, products, services as well as technological breakthroughs, NextGen Auto aims to facilitate a more profitable and sustainable future for all stakeholders in China's automotive market. During its 2012 edition, over 300 delegates attended, with professionals including OEMs, government policy makers, suppliers, dealers, aftermarket service providers and much more.

China is expected to lead the global market for the automotive industry in the coming years. The sheer size of the nation's automotive market has drawn interest from a number of key players in government policy as well as commercial development. But in order to grow the country's automotive market sustainably, a number of areas need to be properly addressed. Some of the topics of discussion to address these areas at NextGen Auto's 2013 edition include:

• E-mobility and electrification: What are the critical steps needed for faster market growth to be achieved?
• Hybrid vehicles and their potential for the passenger and commercial vehicle markets
• How can advanced fuels, hybrids, new materials and digital technology boost efficiency in commercial vehicles?
• Strategies for dealerships distributors: What new business and service markets are emerging?
• Digital marketing and social media: How can these powerful tools aid OEMs and dealerships?

The full list of speakers for 2013 is still in development. However over 35 influential industry experts have already confirmed their participation. Some of which include:

• Thomas Hajek, Board Member for Fiat Chrysler Group
• Boriana Lambreva, Senior Manager, Volkswagen (China)
• Martin Rosell, Managing Director, WirelessCar (Volvo)
• Klaus Dieter Breitschwert, Chairman, Bavarian Car Industry & Board Member, part of the German Federation for Motor Vehicle Trades and Repairs (ZDK)

Additionally, domestic policy and planning initiatives will be addressed by senior directors from China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) and China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC).

NextGen Auto International China Summit 2013 will be held concurrently with Automechanika Shanghai, Asia's largest event for auto parts, accessories, equipment and services, taking place from 10 – 13 December at the Shanghai New International Expo Center. For more information on the fee-based conference, please e-mail nextgenauto@hongkong.messefrankfurt.com

-end-




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Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Where on Earth will the waste go? | ASIA TODAY News & Events



Where on Earth will the waste go? | ASIA TODAY News & Events

Human waste production has multiplied tenfold in the last century. Rubbish – plastic bags, pizza boxes, empty beer cans, tinfoil, bubble wrap, old mattresses, rusty machinery, broken bottles, spent batteries, stale sandwiches, wilting salads and abandoned newsprint – is being generated faster than any other environmental pollutants, including greenhouse gases. And the problem will go on getting bigger until some time in the next century.

Daniel Hoornweg of the University of Ontario and Chris Kennedy of the University of Toronto in Canada and Perinaz Bhada-Tata of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates argue in Nature that the combination of urban growth and material affluence is creating a throwaway problem that won't go away. The average person in the US throws away his (or her) own body weight in rubbish every month. The detritus linked to modern living has not only grown tenfold in a century; by 2025 it will double again.

Solid waste disposal has become one of any modern city's biggest costs. Landfill sites near Shanghai, in Rio de Janeiro, and in Mexico City typically receive 10,000 tonnes of waste a day. The world now has more than 2,000 waste incinerators, some able to burn 5,000 tonnes a day, creating attendant problems of ash and air-polluting fumes.

Landfill waste is of course also a notorious source of methane – a potent greenhouse gas – but the authors are primarily concerned with the simple problems posed by the increasing volume of affluent society's rejected stuff.

It's a city thing, they say. Country dwellers don't buy so much packaged food, don't have factories and don't throw so much food away. City dwellers on average generate twice as much waste; the more affluent urbanites throw away four times as much.

The three researchers – an expert in energy systems, a civil engineer and an urban waste consultant – say that in 1900 there were 220 million people in the cities. That was 13% of the planet's population, and these townsfolk produced 300,000 tonnes of discarded stuff every day.

By 2000, there were 2.9 billion people in cities – 49% of the world's population – creating more than three million tonnes of solid waste per day. By 2025, it will be twice that = enough to fill a line of rubbish trucks 5,000 kilometres long every day.

International idiosyncrasies

Some countries are more profligate than others. Japan's citizens produce about one third less, per person, than US citizens, even though the gross domestic product per capita is about the same. China's solid waste generation is expected to go from 520,550 tonnes per day to 1.4 million by 2025.

"As a country becomes richer, the composition of its waste changes," the authors say. "With more money comes more packaging, imports, electronic waste and broken toys and appliances. The wealth of a country can readily be measured, for example, by how many mobile phones it discards."

Hoornweg and Bhada-Tata are the authors of a 2012 World Bank report in which they projected a world dustbin collection of 6 million tonnes a day by 2025. They calculate that under a business-as-usual scenario waste will grow with population and affluence as the century wears on, with increasing growth in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, and by 2100 it will exceed 11 million tonnes a day and peak sometime in the next century. But this scenario is not inevitable.

"With lower populations, denser, more resource-efficient cities and less consumption (along with higher affluence) the peak could come forward to 2075 and reduce in intensity by more than 25%," they say. This would save around 2.6 million tonnes per day.

SOURCE / Climate News Network



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Friday, October 25, 2013

New Chinese Travel Law Hits Korea's Tourism Industry | ASIA TODAY News & Events



New Chinese Travel Law Hits Korea's Tourism Industry | ASIA TODAY News & Events

Significantly fewer Chinese tourists are visiting Korea since a new travel law took effect in China this month, leaving travel and retail businesses here that counted on a continuing boom high and dry.

Korea's biggest travel agency Hana Tour on Thursday said the number of Chinese tourists it handled shrank to 4,000 in October, down 60 percent from 10,000 last month.

Mode Tour said its tours attracted 13,000 Chinese last month, but that fell to 5,000 in October. The numbers include all bookings until the end of this month.

"The decline is mainly due to the new Chinese travel law," said a Mode Tour staffer.

The new travel law bans including shopping in tour programs, charging extra, and demanding tips. It aims to prevent travel agencies from attracting customers with cut-price tours that sometimes fall short of even the round-trip airfare, and then trying to make the money back from tips, optional extras and herding them into certain shopping outlets that pay commissions.

That sent the average cost of a package tour to Korea up 30 to 40 percent.

"As most group tours to Korea were cut-price packages, it seems they suffered directly from the new travel law. Demand for travel to Europe or the U.S. has stayed about the same," said a Korean resident in Shanghai.

Although a lot of Chinese tourists came here during China's national holiday week, which ended Oct. 7, the number for the month is now less than half that of September.

"There have been almost no Chinese customers since the national holiday," said a travel agent. "It feels even more serious because we had so many Chinese customers until September."

Department stores and duty-free shops are worried since booming sales to Chinese tourists had made up a welcome buffer in this recession.

A department store spokesperson said, "Business is expected to suffer a considerable drop if the number of Chinese tourists plummets. We'll have to think of a new promotional strategy."



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Sunday, October 20, 2013

Time For Business to Shift Focus to The Long Term | Ian Goldin



Time For Business to Shift Focus to The Long Term

In a week when we have seen the effects of political gridlock writ large in US politics, the report Now for the Long Term feels well-timed in its strong call for leaders in politics, business and civil society to include long-range thinking and planning into the mix. The immediate pressures of today cannot be ignored but neither can the need to create a sustainable future; not least if we want to leave a positive legacy.

The danger of leaving a damaging legacy is real. The growing financial debt, rising carbon emissions, dwindling natural resources and the escalating burden of chronic disease all have the potential to leave unsolvable problems for the next generation if we fail to act on the scientific bases that show clearly the difficulties we are storing up. The Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations has brought together scholars from the University of Oxford with 19 leaders from the world of business, government and civil society, to look at the implications of business as usual and find practical ways to overcome short-termism.

In business it is more difficult than ever to balance the pressures of today with goals for the next decade. Business incentives tend to revolve around swift successes; increasing weight is attached to mark-to-market accounting, quarterly returns and short-term incentive bonuses. Uncertainty in global markets has led many companies and business leaders to seek safety in quick returns on investment. Questions about the role of government and unpredictable behavior, such as was manifest in the recent Washington stand-off, compounds the problem.

It is not that the short-term is unimportant. After all, if firms go bankrupt there is no point in planning for the long term. We forget at our peril that the private sector is the largest source of jobs and that flourishing companies are vital for growth, and are a particularly valuable asset in a world that is still suffering the cascading effects of the 2008 financial crisis. Government employment is contracting, so the private sector must generate the jobs required for economies to recover from the crisis.

Sustainable growth, however, requires that we go beyond the immediacy of quarterly reporting. While short-term measures can be a pointer to sustainable growth, they are not enough. Simply relying on short-term measures of success in business can create longer- term instability and risk.

While the future is full of opportunity arising from the extraordinary advances of recent decades in terms of living standards, life expectancy and economic development, it is also highly uncertain and characterized by a pressure on resources and economic inequality. The rational actions of individuals and firms when aggregated lead to escalating demand for food, water, minerals and energy which, together with the environmental consequences of escalating global consumption, is unsustainable. In order to understand the implications of our current patterns of consumption, we need urgently to reassess the relationship between shareholder and societal value and shift the focus significantly to the long term.

Dominic Barton, the Managing Director of McKinsey & Company, and Mark Wiseman, President and CEO of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, have both argued that firms are under increasing pressure to be short-term at the cost of longer-term strategic decision-making. Performance metrics based on share prices are used at the expense of long-term value creation. At the same time rewards are skewed to investors who want to make a quick return and who have little concern for a company's long-term prosperity.

Many companies and commentators are pressing for a shift towards the long term. Barton and Wiseman have sought to influence the buy-side by encouraging institutional investors and corporate directors to steer capital towards long-term value creation. The World Business Council for Sustainable Development is helping to galvanise the global business community towards sustainable ends. The B-Team, founded by Sir Richard Branson and Jochen Zeitz, is among the most recent private sector responses to short-termism, calling on businesses to prioritise people and planet alongside profit.

This work is encouraging but too many businesses are failing to show leadership and take responsibility on the scale required. Some global firms have become skilled at transcending national jurisdictions to avoid obligations, be they on the environment or tax. In a globalised commercial world, ensuring compliance requires coordination between countries that often compete for investment. In Now for the Long Term, the report of the Oxford Commission for Future Generations, we call for a move to "revalue the future", which includes a number of ideas for focusing business on the long term. Our proposal for "innovative, open and reinvigorated institutions" fit for this century, not the last, includes a call for a Voluntary World Taxation and Regulatory Exchange. This Exchange will raise pressure on companies to disclose their tax planning and transfer pricing arrangements and on governments to reveal preferential tax rulings.

Collectively, we need to rethink corporate governance so that owners and boards embrace longer-term mindsets and responsibilities to society at large. Above all, we need business leaders to invest their significant ingenuity, creativity and resources on creating long-term value.

Changing course in such ways may seem contrary to the rational choices of individual investors and companies. However, if we do not step up to this challenge, the collective result may be consequences so damaging future generations will wonder how we squandered our truly remarkable opportunities. The consequences of our actions will resonate for generations to come. But the choices are ours, and need to be taken now.

This post is part of a series produced by The Huffington Post and The Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations, in conjunction with the release of the latter's report Now for the Long Term, published by the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford. The report's recommendations aim to break the gridlock that undermines attempts to address the world's biggest challenges; to bridge the gap between knowledge and action; and to redress the balance between short-term political pressures and a need to secure a sustainable, inclusive and resilient future. To see all the posts in the series, click here. For more information on the report, click here.

 


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Friday, October 11, 2013

The Future Of Education Eliminates The Classroom, Because The World Is Your Class | Co.Exist | ideas + impact



The Future Of Education Eliminates The Classroom, Because The World Is Your Class

This probably sounds familiar: You are with a group of friends arguing about some piece of trivia or historical fact. Someone says, "Wait, let me look this up on Wikipedia," and proceeds to read the information out loud to the whole group, thus resolving the argument. Don't dismiss this as a trivial occasion. It represents a learning moment, or more precisely, a microlearning moment, and it foreshadows a much larger transformation--to what I call socialstructed learning.

Socialstructed learning is an aggregation of microlearning experiences drawn from a rich ecology of content and driven not by grades but by social and intrinsic rewards. The microlearning moment may last a few minutes, hours, or days (if you are absorbed in reading something, tinkering with something, or listening to something from which you just can't walk away). Socialstructed learning may be the future, but the foundations of this kind of education lie far in the past. Leading philosophers of education--from Socrates to Plutarch, Rousseau to Dewey--talked about many of these ideals centuries ago. Today, we have a host of tools to make their vision reality.

Think of a simple augmented reality app on your iPhone such as Yelp Monocle. When you point the phone's camera toward a particular location, it displays "points of interest" in that location, such as restaurants, stores, and museums. But this is just the beginning. What if, instead of restaurant and store information, we could access historical, artistic, demographic, environmental, architectural, and other kinds of information embedded in the real world?

This is exactly what a project from USC and UCLA called HyperCities is doing: layering historical information on the actual city terrain. As you walk around with your cell phone, you can point to a site and see what it looked like a century ago, who lived there, what the environment was like. Not interested in architecture, passionate about botany and landscaping instead? The Smithsonian's free iPhone and iPad app, Leafsnap, responds when you take a photo of a tree leaf by instantly searching a growing library of leaf images amassed by the Smithsonian Institution. In seconds, it displays a likely species name along with high-resolution photographs of and information on the tree's flowers, fruit, seeds, and bark. We are turning each pixel of our geography into a live textbook and a live encyclopedia.

So look beyond MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) in thinking about the future education. In our focus on MOOCs and how they are likely to disrupt existing classrooms and educational institutions, particularly colleges and universities, we are missing the much larger story. Today's obsession with MOOCs is a reminder of the old forecasting paradigm: In the early stages of technology introduction we try to fit new technologies into existing social structures in ways that have become familiar to us.

MOOCs today are our equivalents of early TV, when TV personalities looked and sounded like radio announcers (or often were radio announcers). People are thinking the same way about MOOCs, as replacements of traditional lectures or tutorials, but in online rather than physical settings. In the meantime, a whole slew of forces is driving a much larger transformation, breaking learning (and education overall) out of traditional institutional environments and embedding it in everyday settings and interactions, distributed across a wide set of platforms and tools. They include a rapidly growing and open content commons (Wikipedia is just one example), on-demand expertise and help (from Mac Forums to Fluther, Instructables, and WikiHow), mobile devices and geo-coded information that takes information into the physical world around us and makes it available any place any time, new work and social spaces that are, in fact, evolving as important learning spaces (TechShop, Meetups, hackathons, community labs).

We are moving away from the model in which learning is organized around stable, usually hierarchical institutions (schools, colleges, universities) that, for better and worse, have served as the main gateways to education and social mobility. Replacing that model is a new system in which learning is best conceived of as a flow, where learning resources are not scarce but widely available, opportunities for learning are abundant, and learners increasingly have the ability to autonomously dip into and out of continuous learning flows.

Instead of worrying about how to distribute scarce educational resources, the challenge we need to start grappling with in the era of socialstructed learning is how to attract people to dip into the rapidly growing flow of learning resources and how to do this equitably, in order to create more opportunities for a better life for more people.



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Sunday, October 6, 2013

Taiwan's Big Brand Blues



Taiwan's Big Brand Blues | ASIA TODAY News & Events

Acer has suffered huge losses, and HTC has seen NT$900 billion in market value evaporate over the past two years. Why is the branding dream of Taiwan's high-tech sector crumbling?

The winds of autumn have proved to be unsettling for the world's major high-tech brands, portending a new era of maturity in a sector accustomed to robust growth. Leading vendors have felt the pinch, with Apple's growth slowing and Microsoft acquiring Nokia after unsuccessful forays into mobile devices.

Two of Taiwan's most prominent high-tech brands, computer vendor Acer Inc. and smartphone-maker HTC Corp., have also seemingly entered the autumns of their lives after facing setbacks on several different battlefields.

Acer, Taiwan's branding standard-bearer after being founded 37 years ago, has suffered two consecutive years of heavy losses and was still showing few signs of emerging from its slump in the third quarter this year. Rumors are swirling that there could be a change in management or even that the company could be sold.

Sixteen-year-old HTC has lost NT$900 billion in market value in just two years. After hitting a high of NT$1,300 per share in late April 2011, HTC's stock price plummeted to NT$122 on Sept. 9, the lowest since the company went public in March 2002. Though the stock has rebounded in recent weeks, closing at NT$140 on Sept. 24, many believe the company faces a precarious future.

It will likely post a loss in the third quarter, and it is forecast to ship about 20 million smartphones this year, barely half of the total when the company was at its peak in 2011. It could be soon overtaken by upstart Chinese smartphone brand Xiaomi, which was launched just over three years ago.

Adding insult to injury, new product designs were recently stolen and sold by company insiders.

Even HTC's chairwoman acknowledges problems exist while trying to sound upbeat.

"I think smartphones are still in their infancy, and there are still plenty of opportunities, such as smart cities. There are inevitably ups and downs when building a brand," says HTC chairwoman Cher Wang, as confident as ever. "I need to get better. The CEO also has to get better."

So what exactly has happened to Taiwan's high-tech brands? Why has the country's high-tech sector, helped by tax breaks from the government, with access to the best talent and global markets, come out battered and bruised every time it has pursued its branding dream?

Could it be that only powerful and prosperous countries are able to spawn strong high-tech brands?

"From Acer and AsusTek to HTC, everyone is up against the same fundamental challenge," laments one brand entrepreneur in private.

Without a big home market, Taiwanese high-tech companies are naturally at a disadvantage in the crucial area of defining standards, such as source code for operating systems and basic communications patents. Taiwan is also not interested in adopting the Korean model of pouring the entire country's resources into forging one big brand.

"A small country has to concentrate its resources. To some extent, it has to put up with the spirit of capitalism," says Chiu Yi-chia, the chairman of National Chengchi University's Graduate Institute of Technology, Innovation & Intellectual Property Management. Taiwan's high-tech policies, Chiu says, put a premium on fairness and diversity and amount to a sheep (socialism) in a wolf's clothing (capitalism). As a consequence, Taiwanese tech brands, inherently disadvantaged from the outset, are pushed further off-balance as they take on the global market of 7 billion people.

Acer and HTC represent the leading companies of two different generations. Acer's battleground is the previous-generation notebook computer market of about 200 million units a year; HTC competes in the recently skyrocketing smartphone market of about 1 billion units a year. HTC has been building a brand for five years, Acer for nearly 40 years.

Yet the two vendors have suffered the similar fate of highly volatile corporate profits, and in fighting for market share, both have encountered the same two double-edged swords.

Double-edged Sword No. 1: An International Team

Over time, the two brands have seen major fluctuations in their earnings, but HTC's have been more dramatic than Acer's.

"HTC faces a market that is five times bigger than Acer's, but the time it's had to build a brand has been compressed to 1/6th the time Acer had, putting it under intense pressure. So HTC's sudden rises and falls are really not surprising," explains a high-tech entrepreneur. In today's tech wars, more resources are being brought to the fight than ever before, with a huge amount being burned in the money pit known as "brand marketing."

"It's hard for Taiwanese brands to survive. Samsung sells smartphones as if it were selling shampoo. It even trains it salespeople based on methods used by Proctor & Gamble and Tesco," says a former manager for Samsung in Taiwan. The manager explained that the Korean electronics giant treats tech brands as fast-moving consumer goods brands, pouring huge sums into marketing. It invests three times as much as HTC in sales support in Taiwan, and salespeople at any authorized retailer get a NT$500 bonus for every Samsung smartphone they sell.

Talent is another area where a major financial investment is necessary.

"If you want to fight a global battle, you need international talent," Acer chairman J.T. Wang once said. Acer has shown the willingness to offer internationally competitive salaries to hunt for talent around the world.

"Taiwan does not have a national image or market development advantages to sell, so Taiwanese companies must rely on salaries above the norm to hire top international talent," observes Bei Lien-ti, a professor in National Chengchi University's Department of Business Administration.

Yet Acer's practice of paying top salaries for both local and international talent have not translated to improving results.

Top executives, including Walter Deppeler, the former chairman of the marketing committee and now a senior corporate vice president, Steve Lin, the president of Asia Pacific operations, and Oliver Ahrens, Acer's president for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, are all paid salaries of between NT$50 million and NT$100 million a year, more than Acer corporate president Jim Wong. But that has not stopped the company's global PC market share from falling to 8.3 percent in the second quarter of 2013 from 13 percent in the second quarter of 2010.

"They're paid high salaries, but there are no signs that the company is turning things around," complains one disgruntled Acer insider, who says that since former Acer CEO Gianfranco Lanci left the company in 2011 with a hefty severance package, Acer no longer has the financial wherewithal to hire such top-flight international execs.

As for HTC, it boldly bought a stake in American headphone brand Beats in a deal negotiated by former chief operating officer Matthew Costello, only to have to sell its stake to stop the bleeding from its investment.

The company also paid US$45 million for streaming video service provider Saffron Digital in early 2011, a deal brokered by chief strategy officer Ronald Louks. Louks left the company not long after, and HTC sold Saffron this year for US$47 million. The smartphone maker never did get the synergies from Beats or Saffron Digital it had hoped for.

"Can we really call using a bunch of foreign executives to make a bunch of cross-border acquisitions internationalization?" asked a resentful former HTC manager.

So why are Taiwanese tech companies so unable to work together with an international operations team over the long haul?

"Because Taiwanese do not have boards of directors with strong functions and sound operations," says National Chengchi University's Chiu, noting that the management of Taiwanese tech brands generally depends too much on an all-powerful CEO.

In contrast, in the United States, IBM's board was able to enlist Louis Gerstner to help revive the company, and Yahoo's board recruited Marissa Mayer to do the same at Yahoo.

"Only if the board mechanism is sound can the company build the strength of its management step by step," Chiu says.

Another key to brand marketing is finding an appropriate price point based on the product's positioning in the market. But because HTC's customers have been telecom operators and Acer's customers have been distributors, neither has been able to get a firm grasp of the end user, making it more challenging for them to develop insight into consumers' needs.

Double-edged Sword No. 2: Technological Prowess

HTC relied on its edge in technology, including producing the first Android smartphone, to become the preferred supplier of telecom operators around the world. But after riding its technology to the heights of the industry, HTC neglected the rapid shift in the smartphone market to mid-range and low-cost models.

As the smartphone market exploded over the past five years, HTC failed to see that the main competitive emphasis was evolving from functions to price.

"With Apple now resorting to highlighting the functions of its phones' CPU specs, you know that there is no longer much differentiation between products. You can't count on the brand alone to determine success or failure," says the chairman of an electronics contractor with annual sales of about NT$100 billion.

HTC's high prices have resulted in a backlash from telecom operators. "When all you're doing is assembling screens and CPUs made by others, what business do you have charging a high price? HTC needs to reposition itself. Its main competitors should not be Samsung or Apple but rather Sony, LG and Huawei," the president of a telecom company says bluntly.

Being able to reposition a company at any time is a necessary survival skill in today's brand wars, as Acer has also learned because of its limitations in product flexibility.

Acer relied on a single product category (personal computers) and an individual's strong control of a distribution channel (Lanci in Europe) to thrive, but as the market shifted to mobile devices and Lanci departed (leaving massive inventory in Europe), the secrets of its past success have turned into the catalysts of failure.

Also, determined to build up market share, Acer acquired the Gateway and eMachines computer brands in the United States in late 2007 and Dutch computer maker Packard Bell in early 2008, but those acquisitions have turned into heavy burdens (eMachines no longer exists). The declining value of its sub-brands forced the company to take an "intangible asset" impairment charge of NT$3.5 billion in early 2013, a development that has seriously weakened Acer.

How Small Countries Can Outwit Rivals

Over the past 40 years, Taiwanese tech brands have yet to develop management capabilities across borders, across different fields and across product lines. "Using the same management system to handle different markets and different products only leads to trouble," says Chu Po-young, a professor in the Department of Management Science at National Chiao Tung University.

So does that mean that companies from only the world's biggest economies – the United States and China – can fight the battles for scale and platforms in today's global high-tech wars?

"Small countries can still outwit bigger rivals, as long as they understand how to focus," says Liu Shuen-zen, a professor in National Taiwan University's College of Management. Taiwan can open a new battlefield and cultivate B2B brands, he suggests, pointing to the Swiss model as one worth emulating.

"Switzerland emphasizes 'precision and focus.' Through its sharp concentration and technical proficiency, Switzerland commands 80 percent of the global market for ink used on bank notes, and its watches generate high margins," says Liu, who believes Taiwan could also become a global "hidden champion" in several niche markets.

Following an arduous journey will not be without reward. Though equipment manufacturer ASML is the last company standing in the Dutch semiconductor sector, the world's semiconductor vendors cannot do without its lithography system, and its gross margin last year was 42 percent.

England's attempt to create its own Silicon Valley may have failed, but Cambridge gave birth to ARM Holdings, which developed the architecture on which most of the processors used in smartphones around the world are based. The company may be relatively small, but by leveraging its strength, it has been able to deal powerhouse Intel a severe blow.

Acer and HTC are both likely to post losses for the third quarter, and their short-term prospects remain uncertain. But considered over the longer term, the hard road traveled by Taiwan's high-tech brands remains worth pursuing. After all, success is built on the pillars of failure.

Translated from the Chinese by Luke Sabatier



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Saturday, October 5, 2013

China now world's 3rd largest investor



China now world's 3rd largest investor | ASIA TODAY News & Events

Even as global outward foreign direct investment contracted last year, China set records in this area, becoming the world's third-largest investor, a government report said on Monday.

China's outbound FDI rose 17.6 per cent year-on-year in 2012 to a record high of US$87.8 billion, according to the 2012 Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment, which was released by the Ministry of Commerce, the National Bureau of Statistics and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

The report was released during the 17th China International Fair for Investment and Trade, held in Xiamen, Fujian province, which began on Sunday and closes on Wednesday.

Global ODI slid 17 per cent last year, amid uncertainties confronting the world economy.

China's increase made the nation the world's third-largest investor last year after the United States and Japan, for the first time since the country began to release the data a decade ago.

China was the world's sixth-largest investor in 2011, with an outward FDI flow of $74.65 billion, according to last year's report.

"The Chinese government introduced measures to encourage outbound direct investment in pursuit of the 'going abroad' strategy, and the country's outward FDI maintained robust growth in recent years," said Zhou Zhencheng, commercial counselor of the department of outward investment and economic cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce.

Huo Jianguo, president of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a think tank of the ministry, said that the surge in outward FDI was mainly driven by domestic enterprises eager to tap overseas markets and profit from using global resources.

"Debt crises and slowing growth in developed economies opened up great opportunities for Chinese enterprises to invest abroad, and the renminbi's appreciation helped the process," Huo said.

The nation's non-financial ODI went up 13.3 per cent last year to $77.73 billion, accounting for 88.5 per cent of the total.

Financial ODI surged 65.9 per cent to $10.07 billion, according to the bulletin.

Flows to the US jumped 123.5 per cent to $4.05 billion, making the nation the second-largest destination for China's ODI.

Total ODI to developed economies, at about $13.51 billion, was virtually flat year-on-year at $13.42 billion, according to the bulletin.

Hong Kong received 58.4 per cent — $51.24 billion — of the mainland's ODI.

The city, with its well-developed services in finance, accounting and consulting, serves as a gateway for domestic enterprises to explore international markets, according to Victoria Tang, associate director-general of Invest Hong Kong, a body under the special administrative region's government charged with promoting investment.

Outward FDI to the British Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands, where Chinese investors set up businesses to bypass investment restrictions in developed economies, slid 72.5 per cent to $3.07 billion in 2012.

Developed economies where growth has been weak since the 2008 financial crisis have welcomed ODI from China, which has huge foreign-exchange reserves and cash-rich enterprises, Zhou said.

"The fast increase of China's outward FDI also showed that the country's manufacturing is significantly gaining international competitiveness.

"Further, the country is eager to establish transnational cooperation through mergers and acquisitions in international markets," Huo added.

In 2012, Chinese enterprises completed 457 outward M&A transactions valued at $43.4 billion. Those were record highs for both numbers and value.

These M&As covered 10 sectors, including mining, electricity, culture, manufacturing and transportation.

China's ODI grew 41.6 per cent annually between 2002 and 2012. The government has set a goal of increasing ODI at an average annual rate of 17 per cent through 2015, when it is forecast to reach $150 billion.

The full-year figure this year "is likely to see China's outward investment grow more than 15 per cent", Zhou said.

He added that the robust growth will be maintained in the near future, in view of the country's economic restructuring and the move by its industries to shed excess capital and invest their cash.

As of the end of 2012, China's total outstanding ODI was $531.94 billion, the 13th-largest in the world, said the report.

The amount was small compared with the US outward FDI stock of $5.19 trillion and the United Kingdom's $1.8 trillion, the report said, because "China's outbound direct investment took off rather late".

Chinese investors have established about 22,000 overseas enterprises in 179 countries and regions, "and about 79.2 per cent of them made profits or maintained a balance", Zhou said.

He added that Chinese enterprises are facing rising risks and challenges, including political unrest in Africa and Southeast Asia.

Other challenges include increasing competition from developed economies and restrictions in those markets.

by Li Jiabao



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Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Incredible Technology: How to Clean Up Dangerous Space Junk



Incredible Technology: How to Clean Up Dangerous Space Junk

The vast amount of manmade debris in orbit around Earth is untenable, but emerging and currently available technologies could be used to get these objects under control.

Humanity is generating space junk more quickly than the debris can fall back toward Earth naturally, putting satellites and spacecraft at risk of colliding with speeding pieces of debris. Unless something is done, the problem could get worse, said Donald Kessler, retired head of NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office.

"In the long term, everything will eventually break up due to collisions," Kessler told SPACE.com. "Even if you don't add anything else to the environment, the collision frequency due to random collisions will create more debris than will re-enter naturally." [The Worst Space Debris Events of All Time]

At the moment, NASA officials estimate that about 500,000 pieces of debris larger than a marble orbit the planet. There are 22,000 bits of junk as big as a softball, and there could be more than 100 million tiny fragments at least 1 millimeter across racing around Earth.

But how can mission controllers on the ground remove those troublesome pieces of space junk  — including defunct satellites, spent rocket stages and other pieces of manmade debris — from their dangerous orbits?

The "old-fashioned" method

Technology readily available today could mitigate the space junk threat, Kessler said. By taking only five satellites out of orbit each year for the next 100 years, while adhering to an international understanding called the 25-year rule, space agencies could stabilize the orbital environment, according to a NASA study. The 25-year rule stipulates that nations should not launch objects whose lifetime in space will exceed 25 years after the completion of their missions.

Space agencies could also rely on a somewhat basic method to remove the debris, Kessler said. Engineers would need to develop some kind of technology to grapple the target piece of debris and pull it into a part of space where it could quickly to burn up in Earth's atmosphere.

"Technologically speaking, the easiest way to do it is what I've been referring to as the old-fashioned way," Kessler said. "You just design a spacecraft to go up and get it, attach a rocket to it and send it on its way or wherever you want to put it."

 DARPA Phoenix program

On the horizon

There are other, more high-tech options on the horizon for space cleanup as well.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA)  Phoenix spacecraft project would use old, but functioning pieces of defunct satellites to create new space-based systems — instead of adding completely new satellites. Officials working with the program would launch a "tender" vehicle that would make use of small "satlets" launched without an expensive antenna needed to make satellites function.

Once in space, the tender would move a relatively inexpensive satlet to a defunct geosynchronous satellite. There, the old satellite's antenna could be recycled and incorporated into the tiny satellite, effectively creating a new communications system without necessarily producing more space junk.

Scientists could also use lasers to mitigate the risks posed by orbital debris.

"There are two ways that a laser works" to get rid of a piece of space debris, Kessler said. "One is using what they call photon power — just letting light waves slow it down until it re-enters [Earth's atmosphere], but that works really well on small stuff.

"To get a big force out of it, you need to vaporize part of the surface and essentially form a jet … but when you're doing that, you don't know what might happen, so there's some uncertainty there," Kessler added. "You would hate to cause it to blow up for example." [Photos: Space Debris Images & Clean Up]

Space junk-targeting lasers probably won't be built anytime soon, however, because the national security implications of such a tool could make it a non-starter, Kessler said. That is, the possibility of weaponizing a powerful space or ground-based laser could make building such a device politically difficult.

Another mission — expected to launch to space in 2015 or 2016 — will aim to rendezvous with and grapple obsolete satellites. CleanSpace One, a project of the Swiss Space Center, is designed to be the first satellite capable of grappling a piece of space junk in orbit and plunging with it into Earth's atmosphere, disintegrating both spacecraft.

Space junk in fiction

In trailers for the film "Gravity," opening Oct. 4, a huge cloud of debris can be seen hurtling through space, destroying or damaging a space shuttle, the International Space Station and the Hubble Space Telescope.

While the movie depicts an extreme example of a space junk catastrophe, the scenario is not impossible, Kessler said.

"I suppose all of that is possible, [but] it's not very probable," Kessler said. "The object that broke up could have been in a slightly elliptical orbit because Hubble is higher than the space station, and if it were to break up in an elliptical orbit, it could go through the Hubble altitude and the debris could orbit down to the space station altitude."

And if the space station "happened to be in the right spot, it would go through the same cloud," Kessler said.




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Saturday, September 28, 2013

7 Credit Mistakes That Could Wreck Your Retirement | Adam Levin



7 Credit Mistakes That Could Wreck Your Retirement

Yes, just like clockwork it happened again this year: I got older. As of this week, the Beatles song, "When I'm Sixty-Four," went from being a hypothetical to a reality for me. This means that next year, I will officially become a senior citizen.

It's a jarring prospect. Like most baby boomers, I don't feel especially old. We're the cool ones, the generation that brought America rock 'n' roll, yoga, and the belief that we can do well by doing good. With good reason, we view ourselves as eternally young, hip and savvy.

We are a confident generation, which is a good thing. But when it comes to the way we manage our financial lives -- particularly our credit -- that confidence can make us vulnerable. With that in mind, here are the top seven credit mistakes senior citizens make.

1. Assuming You Are Nearing the End of the Road

When we grew up, 70 was old. Now 70 is the new 50. (80, however, is still 80.) Now the average life expectancy is 84 for men and 86 for women, according to the Social Security Administration. Among married couples where both partners are 65, there's a seventy percent chance that at least one person will live to 85, according to a report by the Society of Actuaries.

How to Fix It: Take Billy Joel's advice and don't go changin'. Or at least don't change too much. If you're 65 or older, the rules are the same as when you were 25. Treat credit as a long-term asset with important risks, responsibilities and benefits.

2. Avoiding Credit

Many seniors are justifiably proud of their financial accomplishments. They've paid off their mortgage, chopped up their credit cards, paid cash for their car.

But if the car dies, a financial emergency arises, or after the kids go off to college and the dog dies, you may need or decide to sell the family home and buy something more suitable. You may need a loan. And if you foreswore credit years ago, you might have become a "credit ghost" and your credit score likely has dropped, which means you will pay more money in interest.

How to Fix It: Don't fear credit. If you don't have a credit card, get one. Use it as you would a debit card, charging only what you can afford to pay in full at the end of each month. This will help rebuild your score, hopefully in time for the next emergency or life event.

3. Taking on Too Much Debt

A recent study by Demos finds that Americans aged 50 and over have an average credit card balance of $8,278, compared to $6,258 for people under 50. Kent State University researchers found that elderly people are more likely than any other age group to file for bankruptcy.

As Gerri Detweiler, director of consumer education at Credit.com, wrote in a recent column, senior debt has many causes. More than a third of people over 50 with credit card debt use their cards to cover basic living expenses, Demos found. Afraid to seek advice from licensed financial professionals, they may fall prey to debt collection scams or get hoodwinked into withdrawing money from their retirement accounts to pay off credit cards.

How to Fix It: Avoid taking on too much debt. If you're concerned about debts you already have and don't know what to do, find an approvedcredit counseling agency. (Hint: Good ones don't tend to charge upfront fees.)

4. Student Loans

Many senior citizens are drowning in student debt. Americans over 60 owe about $43 billion in student loans as of Q4 2012, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The average borrower over age 60 owes $19,521 in student loan debt, and 12.5 percent of them are delinquent on their payments. Some took college classes later in life. Others have debt leftover from school days long past, or cosigned on student loans for their children and grandchildren.

How to Fix It: Look Before You Leap. If you're a senior, think twice before signing for any student loan, whether for you or someone else.

5. Co-signing

To help their kids or grandkids buy a car, get a mortgage or attend college, many seniors co-sign loans. What many don't realize is that lenders and credit reporting agencies don't distinguish between borrowers and the cosigners.

If the borrower fails to make on-time payments, the cosigner's credit score could take the same big hit. Embarrassing phone calls--and lawsuits--from debt collectors could follow.

How to Fix It: Just say no. Avoid co-signing loans. Lend money directly, which won't put your credit at risk. A monetary loan or gift could help a loved one get a secured credit card and start establishing credit of their own, without endangering your financial future.

6. Failing to Check Your Credit

Only a quarter of all seniors regularly check their credit histories, according to a report by the Society of Certified Senior Advisors. Of those who do, 36 percent found errors, some of which were severely damaging their credit scores.

How to Fix It: Check your credit for free once a year with each of the three major credit bureaus and sign up for tools such as Credit.com's free Credit Report Card, which allows you to see your credit profile and provides free scores that update monthly.

7. Failing to Understand Reverse Mortgage Risks

A reverse mortgage can provide seniors extra money during retirement by tapping all the equity they've built up in their home. The loan is repaid only when they die, sell or move out of the home

However, reverse mortgages can also be complicated, and come with risks. The average age of seniors obtaining reverse mortgages is dropping, according to a report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and 70 percent of them take their payments in one lump sum. That could leave them with fewer financial resources to deal with moves or other future expenses, the bureau found. A growing number of reverse mortgage borrowers are at risk of foreclosure. Additionally, depending on the terms of the mortgage, the spouse of the reverse mortgage borrower might be forced to move out of their home when the borrowing spouse dies or moves into an assisted living facility.

How to Fix It: Do your homework. Meet with a certified financial advisor to see whether short- or mid-term reverse mortgage is right for you

It's a new age for me, as it is for America. As our generation gets older, more senior baby boomers will face questions about credit. The good news is that as we lead longer, healthier lives and the same good practices that got us so far will continue to help us now.


 


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Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Find out why Gen Y tourists refuse 2nd visit to M'sia, says former Aussie minister - ANN



Find out why Gen Y tourists refuse 2nd visit to M'sia, says former Aussie minister - ANN

Malaysia has to find out why many "Generation Y" tourists do not return for a second visit, said a former Australian minister.

Fran Bailey, who was a former Small Business and Tourism minister, said with Visit Malaysia Year 2014 around the corner, this was the best time for Malaysia to develop targeted programmes to woo young travellers.

The best way to attract the Gen Y, she said, was by engaging with them directly via social media to find out what they wanted.

"It may be affordable accommodation or better accessibility to tourist spots," said Bailey, who held the minister's post from October 2004 to November 2007, and is well versed in tourism trends.

"By using social media, the (Malaysian) government can reach out to a huge Gen Y audience," she pointed out.

Gen Y generally refers to those born between the early 1980s to the early 2000s.

The global youth travel industry is estimated to represent almost 190 million international trips each year, growing faster than the rate for overall global travel.

The United Nations World Tourism Organisation had predicted that by 2020, there would be almost 300 million international youth trips every year.

Bailey cited Australia's A$4 million (US$3.7 million) "Best Jobs in the World" campaign in 2009 – which offered six "extraordinary jobs" to collectively showcase the best of the country – as one of its programmes to attract youths.

The successful applicants were offered a six-month salary of up to A$100,000 (US$94,150) and tasked with writing about their region and experiences, which they then shared through social media channels and blogs.

More than 40,000 video entries were uploaded by youths all over the world, vying for the six jobs under the programme that contributed nearly A$12 billion (US$11.3 billion) in tourism spending that year.

"In Australia, we have a 54 per cent return rate for Gen Y travellers.

"But this did not happen overnight. It took us many years to achieve this," said Bailey, who is on a visit to Malaysia.



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Thursday, September 19, 2013

Have No Doubt, Markets Depend on the Fed | Mohamed A. El-Erian



Have No Doubt, Markets Depend on the Fed

This week should remove any doubt about whether markets are highly dependent on the Fed. They sure are. Indeed, you could not have constructed better conditions for a controlled experiment. Yet, ironically, the medium-term investment stakes are now higher.

There's been no major economic news this week to speak of. On the corporate side, and with the exception of Microsoft's dividend/buyback announcement, it's also been relatively quiet.

Yet the Dow gained 300 points in the last three days (Monday-Wednesday). The S&P, a broader measure of the stock market, did even better in percentage terms.

Equally notable, the surge in equities was accompanied by a similar increase in bond prices. Gold also rose by over 2 percent. Even oil prices recovered, overcoming the dampening impact of a reduced probability of a military strike on Syria.

No matter how hard you look, there is only one major factor that can consistently explain this week's market moves. And it centers on expectations of Fed policy.

On Sunday night, Larry Summers withdrew his name from consideration for Fed chair. This immediately restored Janet Yellen's front-runner status to replace Ben Bernanke -- a change that was quickly embraced by markets given that investors know a lot more about Ms. Yellen's views on monetary policy. The resulting reduction in uncertainty was turbocharged by markets perceiving, rightly or wrongly, Ms. Yellen as potentially more dovish than Mr. Summers.

Earlier today, the Fed delivered an ultra-dovish policy message at the end of its two-day meeting -- and, I stress, ultra-dovish.

The central bank surprised materially by maintaining "as-is" its support for markets. Indeed, most analysts and many market participants were expecting some "taper" in its monthly $85 billion of unconventional bond purchases.

The Fed also downplayed its previously-articulated concerns about the collateral damage of prolonged policy experimentation. And it added to the surprise by sounding dovish on already-specified policy conditionality.

The markets should be expected to celebrate; and they sure did, courtesy of the Fed.

Looking forward, it is only a matter of time until markets (and the Fed) will need to revisit a central issue -- the extent to which fundamentals can be persistently disconnected from artificially-supported asset prices.

The hope is that a durable improvement in economic fundamentals -- particularly brighter prospects for jobs and growth -- will validate the high prices over time. The risk is that prices will converge down to fundamentals and, in the process, undermine the longer-term policy credibility of the Fed.

Pending this important medium-term clarification, markets are celebrating; and the Fed has proven that it still enjoys tremendous influence on asset prices regardless of fundamentals.

 


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Saturday, September 14, 2013

What could really spook financial markets?



2008 crisis still hangs over credit-rating firms

Three big credit-rating agencies are still trying to restore reputations damaged by the high ratings they gave risky securities before 2008 financial meltdown.

Lehman Bros. wasn't the only storied name on Wall Street to get sullied when the investment bank filed for bankruptcy protection five years ago.

The big three credit-rating agencies — Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings — are still trying to repair their reputations as being a level-headed, sharp-penciled bunch following the collapse of Lehman. These agencies are roundly criticized for not only failing to warn investors of the dangers of investing in many of the mortgage-backed securities at the epicenter of the financial crisis, but benefiting by not pointing out deficiencies.

S&P is being sued by the Department of Justice over its role. Some academic financial experts say that credit-rating agencies haven't changed. But the rating agencies strongly disagree, saying they've learned from the debacle and have made meaningful adjustments to their due diligence.

"They (credit-rating agencies) understood that they were pushing the envelope on these products, but they didn't care," says John Griffin, professor of finance at the University of Texas-Austin. "They were focused on the profit they were getting from the deal."

The agencies' ratings played a critical role in the marketing of risky mortgage-backed securities, such as collateralized debt obligations, which helped bring the U.S. financial system to its knees.

Investment banks had bundled collections of individual mortgages, which by themselves can be hard to trade, into baskets that could be bought and sold like any bonds. These financial instruments were then sold to investors. But in order to sell them, the investment banks counted on them receiving stellar ratings from the agencies to tempt investors starved for return.

Commanding a top price for the securities wasn't the only reason. High ratings were critical in allowing the investment banks to sell them at all. For instance, many money market funds are only allowed to invest in debt that fits the highest ratings categories.

"We conclude the failures of credit-rating agencies were essential cogs in the wheel of financial destruction," according to the report submitted by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in January 2011. "The three credit-rating agencies were key enablers of the financial meltdown. The mortgage-related securities at the heart of the crisis could not have been marketed and sold without their seal of approval."

But despite the lessons learned from the financial crisis, analysts say that shortcomings with credit-rating agencies still exist, and the problems could happen again because of:

• Analyses that rely too much on the recent past. Credit-rating agencies make the classic mistake of thinking recent financial history is likely to repeat, says Bonnie Baha, portfolio manager at DoubleLine Capital.

Lehman Bros.' own debt still had an investment grade rating when it filed for bankruptcy protection, Baha says. Credit-rating agencies and investors made the mistake of thinking that because the federal government intervened with Bear Stearns, it would do the same with Lehman. Bear Stearns was sold to JPMorgan Chase in a government engineered takeover that protected Bear's debt holders. Investors betting the same would be done with Lehman lost big, she says.

The agencies made a similar error in rating structured debt products whose value was tied to mortgages, such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. The rating agencies looked at recent trends in housing and decided to base their worst-case analysis on a 10% decline in the housing market, Baha says. But home prices fell by more than that, demonstrating their models were way too conservative, she says.Even today, many credit-rating agencies continue to pay too much attention to recent history rather than using human judgment to determine how a market might change, she says.

"Recent history is not a particularly good indicator for the future in real estate," she says.

• A profit incentive to be uncritical. Credit-rating agencies are paid by the companies that issue debt. This model creates a big incentive for agencies to "bend their standard to gain business," Griffin says. Structured debt products were especially vulnerable to ratings inflation for the sake of business. These products would most likely fail if the economy short-circuited, allowing credit-rating agencies the ability to say that the economic downturn changed the facts, he says.

Additionally, the products were being created and the ratings paid for by investment banks, which were focused on boosting short-term profitability, he says. Despite roughly 75% of the debt securities getting the top AAA rating from agencies, ultimately more than 70% of CDOs defaulted, Griffin says.

• Over-reliance on ratings. One of the biggest reasons why credit ratings held so much sway is because investors relied on them too much. Rather than doing their own due diligence, many investors simply looked at a bond's rating and used that as their guide, Baha says. That's a mistake, as investors found. But investors often had no alternative. Many debt products were so complicated only the credit-rating agencies had access to the details about the individual loans in the portfolios, Griffin says. Additionally, 86% of CDOs had ratings from two agencies, giving them more perceived credibility when they scored top ratings, Griffin says.

There have been some reforms.

Moody's, for instance, now factors into its ratings "systemic support" or the chances that a bank could get bailed out if it got into trouble. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act also adds new regulation, including continuing on-site oversight of the agencies. Additional disclosures are required for ratings of asset-based securities. Changes are also being phased in that would allow investors to buy certain securities, even if they do not meet certain credit ratings, such as the top credit ratings.

"S&P has taken to heart the lessons learned from the financial crisis. In the past five years, we have spent approximately $400 million to reinforce the integrity, independence and performance of our ratings. We also brought in new leadership, instituted new governance and enhanced risk management. Based on what we learned, we changed the way we rate almost every type of security that was affected by the financial crisis," said Standard & Poor's in a statement.

But little has changed in how credit-rating agencies operate, potentially setting them up for being a part of the next financial problem, Griffin says.

"Have there been any admissions of guilt by credit-ratings agencies? The answer seems to be no," he says, adding that the next problem will likely be something other than mortgage-backed securities. "It could definitely happen again."



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Monday, September 9, 2013

Will the Fed Kill the Recovery? | Robert Kuttner



Will the Fed Kill the Recovery?

For decades, you could always count on the Federal Reserve to pull the plug on prosperity too soon, seeing ghosts of inflation everywhere. The Fed, responsive as it was to creditors, preferred a dose of recession to any sort of price pressures, especially wage increases.

That changed with the regimes of Fed chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke.

Greenspan was willing to keep interest rates low because the banks kept getting into difficulty after bouts of speculative excess in the 1980s and '90s and needed the cheap money to rebuild their balance sheets. The ultimate such collapse occurred just five years ago this week, when the crash of Lehman Brothers revealed the rot in the entire system, and one over-leveraged domino after another fell.

Greenspan's successor, Ben Bernanke, kept the cheap money policy, but combined it with a dose of salutary regulation. Now, however, the usual suspects are issuing the usual warnings about the dangers of inflation. The word has been passed, and Fed is expected to begin pulling back on its heroic program of bond purchases (otherwise known as printing money) any month now.

The Fed, after a somewhat anomalous run as the engine of recovery, seems to be reverting to type.

Trouble is, the economy won't cooperate with this scenario. Inflation is nowhere to be seen, and the recovery continues to be weak.

The latest jobs numbers are just dismal. In August, the measured unemployment rate ticked down one-tenth of one percent to 7.3 percent, but only because more and more people are dropping out of the labor force since looking for work is futile. The percentage of adults in the labor force is at its lowest level since the 1970s, a period when most married women with children still stayed home.

Only one demographic group increased its rate of labor force participation -- people over 65, because they can't afford to retire. Even the rate of people over 70 is increasing, as the retirement system collapses.

Until now, Chairman Bernanke has had the votes to continue his program of bond purchases and cheap money. But the center of gravity on the Fed's policy-setting Open Market Committee is gradually shifting to the inflation hawks.

The financial press is convinced that the Fed will begin "tapering" (cutting back) its bond purchases as early as its next meeting. Interest rates have already risen in expectations of the Fed's policy shift.

The hawks are wrong. In the face of a feeble recovery, the Fed should be keeping interest rates extremely low. But it needs to combine loose money with tight regulation, so that the easy money doesn't induce financial speculation as it did last time.

There is historic precedent for this. In the well-regulated financial economy of the postwar boom, the Fed kept interest rates so low that they were effectively negative when adjusted for inflation. But because there were so few opportunities for financial speculation, the low interest rates translated to cheap capital costs for the real economy. It was an era of robust growth, broad prosperity, and a terrible time to be in the bond market. But what was bad for the bond market was good for everyone else (maybe there's a lesson there?)

Today, however, we are a long way from effective financial regulation. The the Dodd-Frank Act is more loophole than law, and five years after the crash the same business model that produced the collapse lives on.

Which brings us to the final act of the drama of Larry Summers versus Janet Yellen, soon to be resolved by President Obama (or perhaps, if Obama appoints Summers to chair the Fed, it could be resolved by the US Senate.)

Summers is more the inflation hawk of the two. He is also more of a light regulation man. If he gets the job, the Fed is likely to pull back from its low interest rate policy, with little improvement in the regulatory process.

Yellen, by contrast, has spoken out on the need for the Fed to keep doing what's necessary to stimulate a stronger recovery, and to offset the easy money with tough regulation. Wall Street, not surprisingly, prefers Summers. If Summers does get the job, it will be proof positive that the Fed as servant of the bond market is reverting to type.



 

 

 

 



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Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Can Abenomics save Asia? | Forum:Blog | The World Economic Forum



Can Abenomics save Asia?

Once again, Japan is Asia's odd country out. For two decades, as one Asian economy after another boomed, Japan's economy remained virtually stagnant. Now, with GDP growth in Asia's two giants, China and India, slowing precipitously – a decline that appears to be contributing to diminishing economic performance in much of the rest of Asia – Japan is recording its strongest growth since its 1980's boom.

But, just as Japan's post-war economic model became the template for the Asian economic miracles of recent decades, the reforms currently being implemented by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ("Abenomics") may offer Asian economies a path back to strong growth. If the fallout from China's slowdown is not to hit the entire region and jeopardize the economic integration that has already taken place, Asia's governments – beginning with China – will need to embrace similar reforms.

How did Asia's boom fade so quickly? Economics is supposedly a cold-blooded subject. Yet successful economies are prone to one of the most dangerous emotions of all: self-satisfaction, that excessive pride that Confucius condemned, which makes governments wary of reforming what has been a winning model, even when stresses begin to appear.

Japan has paid a high price for this attitude. Even after its property bubble burst 24 years ago, the authorities continued to believe that the country's growth model needed no adjustment. The result was two lost decades of deflation and introspection before Japan finally embraced the reforms needed to kick-start a new, more open – and hence more vibrant – economic model.

China and India, it seems, have also succumbed to economic hubris. Three decades of success in China, and a decade in which India supposedly overcame the old, slow, "Hindu rate of growth," are ending with both economies slowing precipitously. And both are slowing for the same reason: stalled reform, which is a direct result of governments being so satisfied with today's conditions that they fail to address tomorrow's rising dangers.

China's government continues to turn a blind eye toward banks that lend to the politically well connected, or that tolerate companies – mostly state-owned – with poor financial discipline. Indeed, total public- and private-sector debt in China is now around 200% of GDP, up by more than one-third in five years. Reckless lending is undermining efficient allocation of capital and preventing China from drawing a line under the investment- and export-led growth model of the past three decades and basing future growth more on domestic consumption.

Likewise, India's government, having embraced economic liberalization, has essentially pulled back from it in recent years. Plans to allow foreign investment in retailing and other key economic sectors have been put on hold. In critical industries – mobile communications and mining are perhaps the two most important examples – privatization has been corrupted by cronyism.

Moreover, India remains an inward-looking economy that attracts relatively little foreign investment and plays a much smaller role in world trade than it should. Notwithstanding its renowned software industry, India plays little part in the production chains that underpin Asia's regional trade patterns. The result – as visible as it was predictable – has been a sharp slowdown in economic growth.

To be fair, there is a growing recognition in some countries of the need for change. The need to restore economic dynamism was the focus of South Korea's presidential election in 2012, which brought the country's first-ever female president, Park Geun-hye, to power. Today, the country is gripped by an important debate about how to reform the chaebol, the mammoth industrial conglomerates that did so much to lift the country out of poverty and into the front ranks of the world's economies. Park's status as the daughter of former President Park Chung-hee, who put the chaebol at the center of South Korea's economy, could give her the credibility needed to recast their economic role.

Elsewhere in Asia, including in China, the debate is only beginning. But progress on reform, particularly in finance, must come quickly, because in most countries – India is the main exception – the demographic window of a growing working-age population is closing, if not already shut. It is not necessarily bad for Asia's traditionally high savings rates to fall; after all, consumption typically rises with an aging population. But savings will need to be allocated far more efficiently than in the past. Japan's lost decades provide a grim lesson of the economic cost of neglecting such reform.

Moreover, borrowing in US dollars to finance current investment spending – as many emerging economies have done in recent years, as the US Federal Reserve's policy of quantitative easing flooded emerging markets with cheap funds – is no substitute. Indonesia, Thailand, and others are now finding it difficult to service these loans as their exchange rates fall against the dollar in the wake of the Fed's plans to "taper" its policy. Indeed, the debt build-up is so large that markets now fear a repeat of Asia's financial crisis.

The Japanese precedent matters all the more, given that, 16 years after the Asian financial crisis nearly wiped out decades of hard-earned growth, Asia's banks and capital markets remain inefficient. Asia's economies need deep, well-regulated capital markets, so that savings can be allocated to where they yield the highest returns. Instead, today's poorly regulated financial sectors – China is the biggest culprit – misprice capital. Moreover, banks are too dominant: Asia (including Japan) accounts for more than half of the world's population but barely a quarter of global capital-market capitalization.

Sixteen years ago, the Asian financial crisis erupted, following the Thai government's decision to float the baht in the face of speculative attacks. The response of governments to that crisis has shaped much of the region's economic policymaking ever since. If Asia is to avoid another crisis on a similar scale, or lost decades of growth, its governments will need to embrace the type of all-encompassing reforms that Japan is undertaking. Abenomics, it seems, is for everyone.


Author: Yuriko Koike, Japan's former defense minister and national security adviser, was Chairwoman of Japan's Liberal Democrat Party and currently is a member of the National Diet.

Image: A man looks at a stock quotation board displaying Japan's Nikkei average REUTERS/Toru Hanai.



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